Blue Sky Group

ARTICLE
Understanding the need to analyse and manage risk - a guide for international aid agencies

by Ashley Truluck, Director, Blue Sky Group Foundation
December 2003

Aid agencies are often seen as a 'soft target' for theft and political groups throughout the world. They are providing a humanitarian service that crosses borders and conflict lines - but often don't have the support of all parties, or the protection they need to deliver aid to those who really need it.

News headlines over the past three years tell a similar and repetitive story:

.	Uganda: Insecurity in North threatens food aid convoys - World Food Programme.
.	UNICEF suspends Afghan aid convoys - Agence France-Presse.
.	Indian quake victims and aid convoys suffer from looters - PRAVDA.
.	USAID seeks security for aid convoys in Sudan - Agence France-Presse.
.	Kandahar 'no go' for aid convoys - BBC.

In the light of such stories, many aid agencies are now using professional risk analysis consultants to help them assess the issues they may face in a particular country, and how they might improve the likelihood of aid delivery by operating in a more secure environment.

What is Risk Analysis and Risk Management?

Before undertaking risk analysis and management it is worth trying to understand what it is. The simplest definition would be the examination of an organisation's strategic systems, employee or volunteer activities and the organisational problems in order to improve performance.

For an aid agency this is not always an easy task as they have different elements of the organisation to examine including their assets, potential threats and operational activities.

In this article we look at how an agency can undertake risk analysis and management for operational management and delivery of aid.

By recognising, understanding and managing risk, aid organisations can greatly improve the chance of delivering aid to where it is needed most, and therefore improve performance.

By implementing a framework for risk analysis and management an aid agency or charity is able to:

.	identify, assess and manage organisational risks in the country of operation;
.	assign responsibilities for risk management within the organisation, both at headquarters and during the delivery of aid;
.	monitor and track individuals or aid convoys at risk;
.	support the charity's overall objectives during operations and long tern plans.

The Risk Analysis and Management Cycle

The risk analysis and management cycle can be divided into three areas:

1. Pre-entry risk analysis
2. Regional risk management
3. Post-operation review

1. Pre-entry risk analysis

Undertaking the risk analysis process can be critical to the success of an operation.

Many aid organisations undertake this process internally but it can often be vital to gain input from external organisations such as private security companies, government departments and regional governments.

These external parties are able to oversee the proposals, and may often identify additional risks associated with the project, which are not able to be identified internally.

At the Blue Sky Group Foundation we have developed a simple pre-deployment checklist to assist the risk analysis programme.

.	Timing. What is happening in the country at present/in the near future? This includes events such as elections which can affect the stability and sustainability of a project.
.	Location. What is happening in the region at the moment? What security implications can be drawn?
.	Long term political and economic stability.
.	Regional and local government relations in the region.
.	Government regulations. Local tariffs or taxes that may be encountered and can slow or stop aid delivery.
.	Corruption. In many unstable regions corruption can place a major burden on aid delivery programmes.
.	Political opposition. Denial of aid can be a major political tool in a region. If the aid agency is seen to break this it can have a negative effect on all its activities.
.	Who else is operating in the region, what are their experiences?
.	External threats.

2. Regional risk management

When operating a humanitarian relief programme in a region the aid agency must assign responsibilities and tasks relating to risk management. This is because at any time the situation may change and they must be able to react immediately.

Once the agency has considered the risks involved in any operation and they deploy to a region they should consider how best to manage the risk. To do so they should consider:

.	Responsibilities: who takes charge to keep risk analysis up to date?
.	Contingency and crisis management plans: 'what-if' scenarios are important to understand how problems will be managed
.	Delivery mechanisms: who will take responsibility for deliveries. Should the organisation fund and manage aid delivery themselves or can this be outsourced? Should they use an externally run 'Safe Haven'?
.	Security: will private security companies be used to manage security of convoys or logistics bases?
.	Logistics management: where are people and convoys? Are they in contact with the operations centre?
.	Evacuation plans: in case all else fails.

3. Post-operation review

Many organisations forget to conduct a review of risk at the end of a humanitarian effort. This post-operational review should be conducted to establish lessons that can be learnt for future operations, and should include all parties that were involved in the aid delivery.

By including all parties involved the organisation can get a complete picture from everyone, from those who were delivering aid directly to those who needed it, to those who managed the initial fundraising and logistics efforts.

The Benefits of Risk Analysis and Management

Undertaking a risk management and analysis programme can have highly significant benefits for an aid agency and may mean the difference between success and failure of a humanitarian effort.

Key benefits are:

.	Improved aid delivery. By understanding risks they can be avoided and more aid delivered in a shorter period of time.
.	Financial protection. By delivering aid more efficiently, aid agencies gain significant financial savings that can improve aid quality and quantity.
.	Planned risk. When problems occur, the agency is prepared and can react in a positive manner to overcome them.
.	Reduced risk in future operations. An ongoing learning process is undertaken and team members become more aware of risk and how it can be dealt with.
.	Improved profile. By undertaking the risk management cycle, the aid agencies gain a positive public relations profile which in turn helps them raise more funds and deliver aid more efficiently.
.	Employee security. Workers are aware of possible problems and how these can be handled.
.	Better understanding. Both of current problems and in the identification of future operational requirements.
.	Respect. Employees and workers see the effort that is put into understanding risks and how these are reduced.

Risk analysis and management - an Afghan case study

In early 2002, Blue Sky set up a small office in Kabul, Afghanistan, aimed at supporting aid agencies and NGOs on their arrival in the country. The office's task was to establish a risk assessment centre and provide consultancy and support to agencies as they requested it.

On a day-to-day basis this meant that the team developed an information-gathering network from local sources and also other agencies which were already operating in the region. This information was then collated and summarised and included in a daily update that would be disseminated in person, could be looked at online or was a map overlay.

The concept, which was eventually used by several large agencies including IFES, The American Refugee Council and CARE among others, allowed agencies to send teams into Afghanistan early, to assess relief requirements and establish how these were to be implemented.

The Blue Sky team found that many of the agencies that arrived in Kabul had not carried out a detailed risk analysis and were therefore unprepared. They worked closely with senior representatives in the region to undertake a thorough analysis and allow humanitarian aid deliveries to begin quickly.

The Blue Sky Group Foundation is now in discussions with organisations such as DiFiD and USAID to allow them to establish similar offices in other areas where humanitarian efforts are undertaken.

About Blue Sky Group Foundation

Blue Sky Group Foundation is a not-for-profit company within the Blue Sky (International) Group of companies. They work to provide risk analysis and security services for a range of different organisations including aid agencies, charities and the United Nations.

The group operates through an ethical oversight committee which includes Martin Bell (Former journalist and independent MP) and General Sir Rupert Smith. The committee looks at all business activities within the group to ensure that they comply with a strict code of practice.